Evolution of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of air pollutants at global and regional scales during the 1980�C2010 period     

Claire Granier  Bertrand Bessagnet  Tami Bond  Ariela D��Angiola  Hugo Denier van der Gon  Gregory J. Frost  Angelika Heil  Johannes W. Kaiser  Stefan Kinne  Zbigniew Klimont  Silvia Kloster  Jean-Fran?ois Lamarque  Catherine Liousse  Toshihiko Masui  Frederik Meleux  Aude Mieville  Toshimasa Ohara  Jean-Christophe Raut  Keywan Riahi  Martin G. Schultz  Steven J. Smith  Allison Thompson  John van Aardenne  Guido R. van der Werf  Detlef P. van Vuuren 《Climatic change》2011,109(1-2):163-190

Several different inventories of global and regional anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions are assessed for the 1980?C2010 period. The species considered in this study are carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and black carbon. The inventories considered include the ACCMIP historical emissions developed in support of the simulations for the IPCC AR5 assessment. Emissions for 2005 and 2010 from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are also included. Large discrepancies between the global and regional emissions are identified, which shows that there is still no consensus on the best estimates for surface emissions of atmospheric compounds. At the global scale, anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO_x and SO₂ show the best agreement for most years, although agreement does not necessarily mean that uncertainty is low. The agreement is low for BC emissions, particularly in the period prior to 2000. The best consensus is for NO_x emissions for all periods and all regions, except for China, where emissions in 1980 and 1990 need to be better defined. Emissions of CO need better quantification in the USA and India for all periods; in Central Europe, the evolution of emissions during the past two decades needs to be better determined. The agreement between the different SO₂ emissions datasets is rather good for the USA, but better quantification is needed elsewhere, particularly for Central Europe, India and China. The comparisons performed in this study show that the use of RCP8.5 for the extension of the ACCMIP inventory beyond 2000 is reasonable, until more global or regional estimates become available. Concerning biomass burning emissions, most inventories agree within 50?C80%, depending on the year and season. The large differences between biomass burning inventories are due to differences in the estimates of burned areas from the different available products, as well as in the amount of biomass burned.  相似文献   

Validation of a Numerical Indicator of Microbial Contamination for Karst Springs   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Christoph Butscher  Adrian Auckenthaler  Stefan Scheidler  Peter Huggenberger 《Ground water》2011,49(1):66-76

Rapid changes in spring water quality in karst areas due to rapid recharge of bacterially contaminated water are a major concern for drinking water suppliers and users. The main objective of this study was to use field experiments with fecal indicators to verify the vulnerability of a karst spring to pathogens, as determined by using a numerical modeling approach. The groundwater modeling was based on linear storage models that can be used to simulate karst water flow. The vulnerability of the karst groundwater is estimated using such models to calculate criteria that influence the likelihood of spring water being affected by microbial contamination. Specifically, the temporal variation in the vulnerability, depending on rainfall events and overall recharge conditions, can be assessed and quantified using the dynamic vulnerability index (DVI). DVI corresponds to the ratio of conduit to diffuse flow contributions to spring discharge. To evaluate model performance with respect to predicted vulnerability, samples from a spring were analyzed for Escherichia coli, enterococci, Clostridium perfringens, and heterotrophic plate count bacteria during and after several rainfall events. DVI was shown to be an indication of the risk of fecal contamination of spring water with sufficient accuracy to be used in drinking water management. We conclude that numerical models are a useful tool for evaluating the vulnerability of karst systems to pathogens under varying recharge conditions  相似文献   

Fault Roughness at Seismogenic Depths from LIDAR and Photogrammetric Analysis     

Andrea Bistacchi  W. Ashley Griffith  Steven A. F. Smith  Giulio Di Toro  Richard Jones  Stefan Nielsen 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2011,168(12):2345-2363

Fault surface roughness is a principal factor influencing earthquake mechanics, and particularly rupture initiation, propagation, and arrest. However, little data currently exist on fault surfaces at seismogenic depths. Here, we investigate the roughness of slip surfaces from the seismogenic strike-slip Gole Larghe Fault Zone, exhumed from ca. 10 km depth. The fault zone exploited pre-existing joints and is hosted in granitoid rocks of the Adamello batholith (Italian Alps). Individual seismogenic slip surfaces generally show a first phase of cataclasite production, and a second phase with beautifully preserved pseudotachylytes of variable thickness. We determined the geometry of fault traces over almost five orders of magnitude using terrestrial laser-scanning (LIDAR, ca. 500 to <1 m scale), and 3D mosaics of high-resolution rectified digital photographs (10 m to ca. 1 mm scale). LIDAR scans and photomosaics were georeferenced in 3D using a Differential Global Positioning System, allowing detailed multiscale reconstruction of fault traces in Gocad^®. The combination of LIDAR and high-resolution photos has the advantage, compared with classical LIDAR-only surveys, that the spatial resolution of rectified photographs can be very high (up to 0.2 mm/pixel in this study), allowing for detailed outcrop characterization. Fourier power spectrum analysis of the fault traces revealed a self-affine behaviour over 3–5 orders of magnitude, with Hurst exponents ranging between 0.6 and 0.8. Parameters from Fourier analysis have been used to reconstruct synthetic 3D fault surfaces with an equivalent roughness by means of 2D Fourier synthesis. Roughness of pre-existing joints is in a typical range for this kind of structure. Roughness of faults at small scale (1 m to 1 mm) shows a clear genetic relationship with the roughness of precursor joints, and some anisotropy in the self-affine Hurst exponent. Roughness of faults at scales larger than net slip (>1–10 m) is not anisotropic and less evolved than at smaller scales. These observations are consistent with an evolution of roughness, due to fault surface processes, that takes place only at scales smaller or comparable to the observed net slip. Differences in roughness evolution between shallow and deeper faults, the latter showing evidences of seismic activity, are interpreted as the result of different weakening versus induration processes, which also result in localization versus delocalization of deformation in the fault zone. From a methodological point of view, the technique used here is advantageous over direct measurements of exposed fault surfaces in that it preserves, in cross-section, all of the structures which contribute to fault roughness, and removes any subjectivity introduced by the need to distinguish roughness of original slip surfaces from roughness induced by secondary weathering processes. Moreover, offsets can be measured by means of suitable markers and fault rocks are preserved, hence their thickness, composition and structural features can be characterised, providing an integrated dataset which sheds new light on mechanisms of roughness evolution with slip and concomitant fault rock production.  相似文献   

Optimal design of superelastic‐friction base isolators for seismic protection of highway bridges against near‐field earthquakes     

Osman E. Ozbulut  Stefan Hurlebaus 《地震工程与结构动力学》2011,40(3):273-291

The seismic response of a multi‐span continuous bridge isolated with novel superelastic‐friction base isolator (S‐FBI) is investigated under near‐field earthquakes. The isolation system consists of a flat steel‐Teflon sliding bearing and a superelastic NiTi shape memory alloy (SMA) device. The key design parameters of an S‐FBI system are the natural period of the isolated bridge, the yielding displacement of the SMA device, and the friction coefficient of the sliding bearings. The goal of this study is to obtain optimal values for each design parameter by performing sensitivity analysis of a bridge isolated by an S‐FBI system. First, a three‐span continuous bridge is modeled as two‐degrees‐of‐freedom with the S‐FBI system. A neuro‐fuzzy model is used to capture rate‐ and temperature‐dependent nonlinear behavior of the SMA device. Then, a set of nonlinear time history analyses of the isolated bridge is performed. The variation of the peak response quantities of interest is shown as a function of design parameters of the S‐FBI system and the optimal values for each parameter are evaluated. Next, in order to assess the effectiveness of the S‐FBI system, the response of the bridge isolated by the S‐FBI system is compared with the response of the non‐isolated bridge and the same bridge isolated by pure‐friction (P‐F) sliding isolation system. Finally, the influence of temperature variations on the performance of the S‐FBI system is evaluated. The results show that the optimum design of a bridge with the S‐FBI system can be achieved by a judicious specification of design parameters. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society     

Austin H. Becker  Michele Acciaro  Regina Asariotis  Edgard Cabrera  Laurent Cretegny  Philippe Crist  Miguel Esteban  Andrew Mather  Steve Messner  Susumu Naruse  Adolf K. Y. Ng  Stefan Rahmstorf  Michael Savonis  Dong-Wook Song  Vladimir Stenek  Adonis F. Velegrakis 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):683-695

With 80 % of world trade carried by sea, seaports provide crucial linkages in global supply-chains and are essential for the ability of all countries to access global markets. Seaports are likely to be affected directly and indirectly by climatic changes, with broader implications for international trade and development. Due to their coastal location, seaports are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events associated with increasing sea levels and tropical storm activity, as illustrated by hurricane “Sandy”. In view of their strategic role as part of the globalized trading system, adapting ports in different parts of the world to the impacts of climate change is of considerable importance. Reflecting the views of a diverse group of stakeholders with expertise in climate science, engineering, economics, policy, and port management, this essay highlights the climate change challenge for ports and suggests a way forward through the adoption of some initial measures. These include both “soft” and “hard” adaptations that may be spearheaded by individual port entities, but will require collaboration and support from a broad range of public and private sector stakeholders and from society at large. In particular, the essay highlights a need to shift to more holistic planning, investment and operation.  相似文献   

Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperatures   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Dim Coumou  Alexander Robinson  Stefan Rahmstorf 《Climatic change》2013,118(3-4):771-782

The last decade has produced record-breaking heat waves in many parts of the world. At the same time, it was globally the warmest since sufficient measurements started in the 19th century. Here we show that, worldwide, the number of local record-breaking monthly temperature extremes is now on average five times larger than expected in a climate with no long-term warming. This implies that on average there is an 80 % chance that a new monthly heat record is due to climatic change. Large regional differences exist in the number of observed records. Summertime records, which are associated with prolonged heat waves, increased by more than a factor of ten in some continental regions including parts of Europe, Africa, southern Asia and Amazonia. Overall, these high record numbers are quantitatively consistent with those expected for the observed climatic warming trend with added stationary white noise. In addition, we find that the observed records cluster both in space and in time. Strong El Niño years see additional records superimposed on the expected long-term rise. Under a medium global warming scenario, by the 2040s we predict the number of monthly heat records globally to be more than 12 times as high as in a climate with no long-term warming.  相似文献   

Influence of mid-latitude circulation on upper Indus basin precipitation: the explicit role of irrigation     

Fahad Saeed  Stefan Hagemann  Sajjad Saeed  Daniela Jacob 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(1-2):21-38

Since much of the flow of the Indus River originates in the Himalayas, Karakoram and Hindu Kush Mountains, an understanding of weather characteristics leading to precipitation over the region is essential for water resources management. This study examines the influence of upper level mid-latitude circulation on the summer precipitation over upper Indus basin (UIB). Using reanalysis data, a geopotential height index (GH) is defined at 200 hPa over central Asia, which has a significant correlation with the precipitation over UIB. GH has also shown significant correlation with the heat low (over Iran and Afghanistan and adjoining Pakistan), easterly shear of zonal winds (associated with central Asian high) and evapotranspiration (over UIB). It is argued that the geopotential height index has the potential to serve as a precursor for the precipitation over UIB. In order to assess the influence of irrigation on precipitation over UIB, a simplified irrigation scheme has been developed and applied to the regional climate model REMO. It has been shown that both versions of REMO (with and without irrigation) show significant correlations of GH with easterly wind shear and heat low. However contrary to reanalysis and the REMO version with irrigation, the REMO version without irrigation does not show any correlation between GH index and evapotranspiration as well as between geopotential height and precipitation over UIB, which is further confirmed by the quantitative analysis of extreme precipitation events over UIB. It is concluded that although atmospheric moisture over coastal Arabian sea region, triggered by wind shear and advected northward due to heat low, also contribute to the UIB precipitation. However for the availability of necessary moisture for precipitation over UIB, the major role is played by the evapotranspiration of water from irrigation. From the results it may also be inferred that the representation of irrigated water in climate models is unavoidable for studying the impact of global warming over the region.  相似文献   

The impact of uncertain emission trading markets on interactive resource planning processes and international emission trading experiments   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Stefan Pickl  Erik Kropat  Heiko Hahn 《Climatic change》2010,103(1-2):327-338

Interactive resource planning is an increasingly important aspect of emission trading markets. The conferences of Rio de Janeiro, 1992, and Kyoto, 1997, originally focusing on environmental protection at both macro- and micro-economic levels, called for new economic instruments of this kind. An important economic tool in this area is Joint Implementation (JI), defined in Article 6 of the Kyoto Protocol. Sustainable development can be guaranteed only if JI is embedded in optimal energy management. In this contribution we describe and evaluate one international procedure within uncertain markets which helps to establish optimal energy management and interactive resource planning processes within uncertain emission trading markets.  相似文献   

Ramifications of high in-situ temperatures for laboratory testing and inferred stress states of unlithified sediments – A case study from the Nankai margin     

Andre Hüpers  Stefan KreiterAchim J. Kopf 《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2010

The recovery of drill cores involves changes in pressure and temperature conditions, which inevitably alter the mechanical properties of unlithified sediments. While expansion from unloading after core recovery is well studied, the effects from cooling on standard geotechnical tests are commonly neglected. Along the central portion of the Nankai margin sediments were recovered from high in-situ temperatures of up to 110 °C during IODP Leg 190. So far, the interpretation of the consolidation state of the Lower Shikoku Basin facies (LSB) entering the accretionary Nankai margin is ambiguous. Results from laboratory consolidation tests at room temperature show high pre-consolidation stresses. These were interpreted as hardening caused by cementation, while the field-based porosity vs. depth trend points towards normal consolidation. As an explanation for this discrepancy, the change of the mechanical properties by cooling from in-situ to laboratory conditions is proposed. In this paper, the results of a thermo-mechanical model are compared to published field data. This comparison suggests that the observed hardening is at least partially an artefact from cooling during core recovery, and that the strata may be considered normally consolidated to slightly overconsolidated. The latter can be explained by minor cementation or the influence of secondary consolidation. The results suggest that cooling from high in-situ temperatures may be important for the interpretation of the consolidation state of other sedimentary successions elsewhere.  相似文献   

Effect of bed surface roughness on longitudinal dispersion in artificial open channels     

Marcus Schulz  Jan Priegnitz  Jörg Klasmeier  Stefan Heller  Stefan Meinecke  Michael Feibicke 《水文研究》2012,26(2):272-280

In several empirical and modelling studies on river hydraulics, dispersion was negatively correlated to surface roughness. In this study, it was aimed to investigate the influence of surface roughness on longitudinal dispersion under controlled conditions. In artificial flow channels with a length of 104 m, tracer experiments with variations in channel bed material were performed. By use of measured tracer breakthrough curves, average flow velocity, mean longitudinal dispersion, and mean longitudinal dispersivity were calculated. Longitudinal dispersion coefficients ranged from 0·018 m² s^?1 in channels with smooth bed surface up to 0·209 m² s^?1 in channels with coarse gravel as bed material. Longitudinal dispersion was linearly related to mean flow velocity. Accordingly, longitudinal dispersivities ranged between 0·152 ± 0·017 m in channels with smooth bed surface and 0·584 ± 0·015 m in identical channels with a coarse gravel substrate. Grain size and surface roughness of the channel bed were found to correlate positively to longitudinal dispersion. This finding contradicts several existing relations between surface roughness and dispersion. Future studies should include further variation in surface roughness to derive a better‐founded empirical equation forecasting longitudinal dispersion from surface roughness. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献